AI-generated image description: Line chart showing probability of voting for Obama after a positive shock versus previous probability, with red curve, black diagonal, and dotted reference line.

AI-extracted visible text:
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Probability
of Voting for
Obama After
Positive
Shock
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Previous Probability of Voting for Obama

Originally embedded in "Swing Voters and Elastic States", an article by Nate Silver: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/swing-voters-and-elastic-states/

Original source URL: https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/fivethirtyeight-0521-elastic1-blog48011.png

AI disclosure: Image descriptions and visible-text extraction were generated using Sonnet 4.6 by Anthropic.

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